The Zebra Bridge
To fully understand the phenomena of evolutionary rate changes, such as the sudden appearance of flowering plants, it is crucial to consolidate the outcomes of the thought experiment that led to geometric interpretations and, subsequently, to the formulation of mathematical relationships. These relationships serve as the foundation for successful but abstract computational simulations of the phenomenon.
In Africa, thousands of animals, including zebras, undertake the Great Migration each year in search of food. This journey requires crossing the perilous plains of the Serengeti, teeming with predators. Now, imagine a fictional bridge crossing the Serengeti, isolating the zebras from their predators.
Concepts: After thousands of generations, the bridge breaks, and the survival ability of the isolated zebras is tested.
The broken Zebra Bridge
A.- If the bridge remains intact for several generations, the zebras might completely lose their ability to face dangers when the bridge eventually breaks, forcing them back onto the perilous plains. According to Darwin's Theory, this scenario is sufficient for us to predict an extinction event with certainty.
B.- However, if the bridge breaks after fewer generations, the zebras might still retain certain skills to confront dangers when they return to the hazardous plains. This mental consideration presents several unresolved challenges in making evolutionary predictions. Moreover, determining a theoretical relationship between factors such as 'use and disuse,' gene assimilation, genetic drift, and other elements involved in allopatric speciation, is a complex task that has not been previously resolved. To address this situation, a solution had to be proposed that belongs more to the realm of engineering than biology.
Theoretical Framework and Predictive Models in Evolution
Using this metaphor, a theoretical framework was established to facilitate the development of predictive mathematical models of evolution. This approach distinguishes these models from the widely used Bayesian models in genetics. Instead, highly abstract geometric techniques, commonly applied in engineering and physics to tackle complex problems, were utilized.
The fundamental variables identified in the predator-prey relationship include the "selective pressure" exerted by the predator, the "fitness" of the prey to counter the predator, and the number of generations of the event to be predicted. An example of this relationship is summarized in the following figure, which simulates the well-known "bottleneck effect."
The bottleneck effect is central to the controversy over whether random variations are sufficient to justify the precise speciation that species achieve following near-extinction events or if Raad's hypothesis of ad hoc mutations should be advanced.
A sophisticated software, currently being patented, was created to predict abstract evolution models. It has been successfully tested on basic models, such as simulating the bottleneck effect and subsequent recovery, diversification, and speciation of hypothetical organisms in stressful environments.
The screenshot shows how orange-colored organisms almost went extinct when exposed to different selective pressures, simulating Darwinian natural selection. However, a small group survived, evolved, and speciated due to ad hoc mutations.
Recent interdisciplinary research has advanced our understanding of evolution, challenging the classical theory that mutations arise randomly. Studies show that adaptive mutations in microorganisms and plants under stress may not be random. Modern sequencing technologies further support the need to revise our views on genetic evolution.
Then, if natural selection is enhanced by ad hoc mutations, we can expect evolution following bottlenecks to result in an explosion of new life forms. This is due to mutations occurring in precise genomic positions, counteracting the selective pressure that nearly exterminated the species. This is exactly what likely happened after the K-Pg boundary event, leading to the rapid diversification of angiosperms that astonished Darwin.
Thus, Raad's ad hoc mutation hypothesis provides a coherent explanation for the abrupt evolutionary changes observed in the fossil record following cataclysms, effectively solving Darwin's flower mystery. For more details, explore the multidisciplinary approach that integrates thought experiments, mathematical relationships, and computational models described in the links on this page or purchase a paper from Elsevier. You can also find the author's expanded books here: [Link to "Eduardo Raad" on Amazon.com] [Link to "Eduardo Raad" on ELSEVIER].